Live on Kraken — Right Now

Crypto market
intelligence,
in the open.

A 24/7 engine that watches the markets, trades its own account on Kraken, and publishes every signal, win, loss and lesson in public. The bot is the analyst. The content is the proof.

Educational content only. Not investment advice. All signals reflect what the bot traded — not a recommendation for you to do the same. Crypto carries substantial risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

No spam. Educational content only. Unsubscribe anytime.

LIVE ACTIVITY Sample feed
Entered
ETH/USD
12 min ago

RSI from oversold on 1h, vol +180% above 20-day avg. 4h confirms. Confidence 0.74. Per Mark Douglas.

Closed +2.8%
SOL/USD
1h ago

Trailing stop caught the gain after a 5.4% intraday push. Bollinger breakout entry held above prior pivot.

Missed
AAVE/USD
3h ago

Pattern fired at 0.71 but MAX_OPEN_TRADES already at 5. Pair moved +4.1% — the trade-off the rule exists for.

Educational. Not investment advice. Crypto carries risk.
Books 32 in the knowledge base
Pairs 13 continuously monitored
Tests 1,684 passing under randomised order
Hidden Trades 0 every position, public
Trades Published 100% wins, losses, misses
The Principle

Most crypto channels show wins, hide losses, and never explain why. Arvon does the opposite. Every signal carries reasoning drawn from a curated library of 32 trading books — Taleb, Schwager, Mark Douglas, Murphy, Elder, Kahneman, Soros, and others. Every trade closes with a written case study. Every miss is logged with a root-cause explanation. Transparency is the strategy.

How It Works

Three steps.
Nothing hidden.

The bot trades, you get the signal, you decide what to do with it. No automation of your account, no black-box AI — every decision the system makes is logged and explained.

01

The bot trades

ARVON monitors 13 pairs on Kraken 24/7. When a pattern fires above the 60% confidence floor and passes MTF + liquidity checks, it places a real-money trade on its own account. Stop-loss and take-profit are attached within one second.

02

You receive the signal

The same signal — pair, pattern, confidence, reasoning — lands in your inbox or Telegram. No delay, no edits, no cherry-picking. You see the trade ARVON made, with the book-cited reasoning behind it.

03

You stay in control

ARVON isn't copy-trading. You decide whether to act, with what size, on which exchange. ARVON is the analyst; you're the trader. Your funds stay yours.

What a signal looks like

Real example.
Real reasoning.

A real example of how the engine communicates. Reasoning first, conviction stated, book-cited, with the disclaimer always in the footer. This is what lands in your inbox each morning.

Arrives in Telegram & email simultaneously

ALPHA TIER 1 subscribers receive signals with no delay — same moment the bot fires. Free subscribers receive the morning digest.

A
Arvon Trading Bot
Telegram · Educational content only
Today's Arvon watchlist · 15-05-2026
Top Conviction
XRP/USD
RSI from oversold on 1h, volume +142% above 20-day average. 4h timeframe confirms. Confidence 0.74. Entered at market; stop-loss at pivot-low minus 5%; take-profit +10% with software trailing stop.
Per Mark Douglas (Trading in the Zone): oversold reversals on rising volume have high follow-through when the higher timeframe agrees.
Watching But Not Entered
AVAX/USD — Bollinger squeeze tightening into 14-day low. Awaiting break.
12:34 PM
The Trade Log

The trade log is public.

Every position, every exit, every loss — open.

Open the live log ↗
DatePairPatternConf.EntryExitP/L %Outcome
14-05-2026BTC/USDEMA_CROSS0.7196,42098,160+1.81%Win
13-05-2026ETH/USDRSI_OVERSOLD0.743,4853,602+3.36%Win
12-05-2026AAVE/USDBB_SQUEEZE0.66178.50172.20−3.53%Loss
10-05-2026AVAX/USDMOMENTUM0.7238.2039.85+4.32%Win
09-05-2026PEPE/USDBREAKOUT0.620.000012450.00001195−4.02%Loss

arvon_trade_log — Public Google Sheet · Auto-updates on every close

What Makes Arvon Different

From the rest of the
crypto-channel landscape.

The Norm
Most crypto channels
Show wins, hide losses
"This will moon"
Vague predictions
No skin in the game
Recycled hot takes
Hide the system
Sell signals
Arvon's Way
Arvon
Publishes wins and losses with equal care
"Pattern X fired at conf 0.74; here's why and what we did"
Specific levels, specific reasoning, specific exits
Real money on Kraken, public trade log
Original analysis from a systematic engine
Open about the strategy, parameters, and failures
Share intelligence (free) and build trust before any paid product
Powered by 32 Timeless Trading Books

The 32 books behind every signal

When the engine fires, this is the library it reasons against.

TalebFooled by Randomness
SchwagerMarket Wizards
MurphyTechnical Analysis
DouglasTrading in the Zone
ElderTrading for a Living
KahnemanThinking Fast & Slow
SorosAlchemy of Finance
AronsonEvidence-Based TA
MarksThe Most Important Thing
MungerPoor Charlie's Almanack
HouselPsychology of Money
LefèvreReminiscences
Taleb
"Wild success is variance."
Schwager
"90% mental."
Murphy
"The market discounts everything."
Douglas
"Think in probabilities."
Elder
"Markets are organised mass psychology."
Kahneman
"Trust the calibrated."
Soros
"I know when I'm wrong."
Marks
"Risk comes from not knowing."
Latest from Arvon

A live channel,
not a static brochure.

Watchlist 15 May 2026
ETH/USD oversold bounce, AVAX squeeze tightening
Two top-conviction setups for the day, plus a detector-tier alert on PLAY/USD pending operator review.
Read on X ↗
Case Study 14 May 2026
SOL/USD closed +3.2% — trailing stop did the work
Entry at 0.71 confidence on a Bollinger breakout. TP was conservative; the trailing stop captured the extension. Mark Douglas on taking the exit the system gave you.
Read in newsletter ↗
Post-Mortem 13 May 2026
Missed AAVE/USD's 4.1% run — correct reject, here's why
Pattern fired at 0.71 confidence but MAX_OPEN_TRADES was already at five. Per Taleb, a sample of one is not signal. We won't lower the floor for one good outcome.
Read on X ↗
Inside the Engine

What the system writes before any signal becomes a subscriber alert.

Every routing decision is archived. Every drop is logged. This is the raw output before it becomes your morning watchlist.

~ arvon-engine.log tail -f
2026-05-17 07:32:14 UTC ETH/USD   RSI_OVERSOLD   conf=0.74 ↳ MTF 4h confirms (RSI=29, vol +180%) PASS ↳ Liquidity check: $42M 24h vol — PASS ↳ Routed to consumer queue
2026-05-17 07:31:47 UTC AVAX/USD   BB_SQUEEZE   conf=0.58 ↳ Below 0.60 floor — dropped ↳ Logged to scoring archive
2026-05-17 07:31:12 UTC PEPE/USD   NEW_LISTING   conf=0.91 ↳ Detector tier (½ size, alert-only) Pending operator approval

Excerpt from arvon-engine.log — every routing decision is archived.

The Tier Structure

Start free. Upgrade when you're ready.

Free content builds the trust. Paid tiers add speed, depth and tools — when the free work has earned the right to ask for money.

Available now
Free
£0 always

Everything you need to follow the bot honestly — before committing a penny.

  • Daily AM watchlist with reasoning
  • Evening performance digest
  • Case studies on every closed trade
  • Missed-opportunity post-mortems
  • Public trade log (Google Sheet)
  • YouTube book summary series
Subscribe free →
Coming soon
Alpha — Tier 2
£24.99/mo

For serious students of systematic trading. Deeper methodology and community access.

  • Everything in Tier 1
  • Paste-your-chart AI coaching insights
  • Monthly methodology deep-dives
  • Private community (Q&A, discussion)
  • Portfolio dashboard
  • Early strategy experiments
Join the waitlist →
Coming soon
Alpha — Tier 3
£49.99/mo

For power users who want the full system — tools, early access, and the complete book library.

  • Everything in Tier 2
  • Early access to new strategy experiments
  • Live portfolio tracker dashboard
  • Full book library access + notes
  • Systematic trading course (early access)
  • Priority support & direct access
Join the waitlist →

Paid tiers only launch when the free work has earned the audience's trust. Join free — you'll hear first.

Why This Exists A note from the operator
"Arvon started as a private experiment. I wanted to know whether a systematic trading approach — built honestly on the best trading wisdom ever published, validated on real money, and willing to admit its failures — could outperform the noise.

What I found is that the strategy works, but the harder problem is keeping the system honest. So I built the publishing layer first. Every signal explains itself. Every miss is logged. Every parameter change is justified before it's applied.

Arvon isn't a fund. It isn't a managed account. It's an open record of a working system — for traders who'd rather read the methodology than the marketing."
— Graham
FAQ

Common questions.

Paid signals groups cherry-pick wins and hide losses. Arvon publishes wins, losses, and every miss with root-cause analysis — and the trade log is a public Google Sheet you can audit yourself. Anyone can verify the numbers.
No. Arvon sends you educational signals — what the bot traded and why. You decide whether to act on them with your own account on your own exchange. We don't touch your funds or execute trades on your behalf.
Daily watchlist with reasoning, a performance digest each evening, case studies on every closed trade, and post-mortems on every miss. One email each morning summarises it all. No credit card, no commitment.
No, and no. Arvon is educational content from a private trader — not investment advice, not a managed service. Every signal reflects what the bot traded, not a recommendation for you to do the same. Any future premium tier will follow proper consultation first.
The trade log is a public Google Sheet. Every trade, win or loss, timestamped and visible. We replay the past 30 days weekly to validate that parameter changes paid off — all auditable by anyone.
Tier 1 (£4.99/mo) is available now. Tiers 2 and 3 launch only when the free work has earned the right to ask for money. Join the free list to hear first when that changes.
Both. Every signal is explained in plain language with the underlying book lesson cited. You'll learn systematic trading by watching a real system work over months — not by reading a book about it.

Get the free daily watchlist.

One email each morning. The same intelligence the bot trades on.

No spam. Educational content only — not investment advice.

Or see the full tier structure ↑